NEW YORK — XRP has consolidated near the $1.00 threshold as exchange inflows from large holders drop to levels not seen since 2021. While reduced transfer volumes point to easing immediate selling pressure, technical indicators and persistent weak demand suggest the token remains vulnerable to near-term volatility.
On-Chain Metrics: Whale Inflows Drop to 2021 Lows
According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the three-month average of XRP whale deposits sent to Binance has plunged to approximately $61 million.
- Significant Decline: Current transfer volumes sit six to eight times lower than peaks recorded earlier in the year, which reached $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October 2025.
- Net Flow Dynamics: Despite the sharp drop in deposits, net flows remain positive at roughly $18.8 million, indicating that large-scale deposits continue to marginally outpace withdrawals.
- Analyst Outlook: While reduced exchange deposits typically limit immediate token availability for sale, analysts emphasize that diminished selling activity alone is insufficient to confirm a confirmed bullish trend reversal without a concurrent surge in buyer demand.
Technical Analysis: Daily vs. 4-Hour Timeframes
XRP has fluctuated around $1.00 following a recent dip to $0.988, holding a market capitalization of approximately $62.8 billion with nearly $900 million in daily trading volume.
Daily Structure Keeps Sellers in Control
- Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands: The token trades below the 20-day middle Bollinger Band at $1.0446, keeping short-term momentum tilted toward sellers. The lower band sits near $0.9866.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The daily RSI stands at 36.02, reflecting weak momentum while remaining above the traditional oversold threshold of 30.
- Support and Resistance: A confirmed daily close below the $0.9866 lower band risks dragging prices toward support around $0.95. Conversely, bulls must reclaim the middle Bollinger band at $1.045 to target the upper band near $1.1025.
4-Hour Falling Wedge Setup
On the 4-hour chart, XRP is consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern formed following its July 21 high near $1.165:
- Immediate Barriers: The first resistance hurdle rests at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $1.024, with subsequent upside targets at $1.055 and $1.076.
- Momentum Indicators: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows slight easing of downside momentum, though lines remain below zero. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains negative at -0.09, indicating capital flows still favor sellers.
Liquidation Heatmap and Weekend Outlook
Data from CoinGlass highlights clusters of leveraged positions concentrated directly above current price levels:
- Overhead Liquidity: Notable short-liquidation pockets sit around $1.01, with denser clusters between $1.02 and $1.03, and stronger overhead resistance stretching from $1.045 to $1.05.
- Downside Risk: Additional liquidity pools sit between $0.98 and $0.99, marking critical defense zones should the $1 support give way.
As weekend trading begins with typically thinner liquidity, market participants are monitoring whether the falling wedge pattern will trigger a short-covering bounce or if continued lack of demand will push XRP toward lower support boundaries.