CALGARY, Alberta – June 10, 2026 – According to a new report from Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), global oil markets could remain under significant pressure for an extended period, even as crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recover.
The latest EIR analysis suggests that many market participants may be underestimating the long-term impact of the disruption on global oil inventories. While diplomatic efforts and improving transportation flows have eased immediate concerns, the damage already done to global stockpiles could continue to support elevated oil prices well into 2027.
EIR’s modeling projects that OECD crude and petroleum product inventories will decline sharply throughout 2026, falling from approximately 2.82 billion barrels at the end of 2025 to around 2.36 billion barrels by the fourth quarter of 2026. If realized, this would represent the lowest inventory levels seen in more than two decades.
Brent Crude Expected to Remain Elevated
Under EIR’s base-case scenario, Brent crude oil is expected to average around $110 per barrel during the second half of 2026, with prices potentially reaching $117 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The report also forecasts that Brent prices may remain above $100 per barrel until the third quarter of 2027, before gradually easing into the mid-$90 range as global inventories begin to recover.
Al Salazar, Director at Enverus Intelligence Research and author of the report, noted that inventory shortages often have a longer-lasting impact than the events that initially caused them.
“Even if diplomatic progress continues, OECD inventories are expected to reach levels that have historically been associated with stronger oil prices. In addition, the market may continue to price in a lasting geopolitical risk premium following the Strait of Hormuz disruption,” Salazar said.
Key Findings from the Report
- OECD crude and product inventories are projected to fall from 2.82 billion barrels at year-end 2025 to 2.36 billion barrels in Q4 2026.
- Brent crude is expected to average approximately $110 per barrel in the second half of 2026.
- Oil prices could peak near $117 per barrel during Q4 2026.
- Brent may remain above $100 per barrel until Q3 2027.
- A persistent $5–$10 per barrel geopolitical risk premium could become embedded in global oil prices.
- Each additional month of disruption could increase the average Brent price by approximately $10–$15 per barrel during the second half of the year.
Market Outlook
While oil supply routes are gradually stabilizing, EIR believes the market’s focus on immediate diplomatic developments may overlook the longer-term consequences of depleted inventories. As global stockpiles approach historically low levels, oil prices could remain supported for much longer than many investors currently expect.
The report highlights that rebuilding inventories will likely be a multi-year process, leaving energy markets vulnerable to further supply shocks and continued geopolitical uncertainty.